The research project focuses on the evolution of the Chinese growth model. Despite the remarkable economic performance attained so far, the Chinese socio-economic model has, in fact, been characterised by significant macroeconomic imbalances and serious social problems that need to be addressed soon. The Chinese elite is aware of the urgency of such a wide range of reforms, but the much-needed corrective actions appear to be politically, institutionally and socially challenging. This research project aims to develop some theoretical macroeconomic models to study the transition path and the long-term implications on growth of various reform scenarios, taking fully into account the delicate balance of power between the dominant social groups and the elite that governs the country. The project will also aim to address the impact of the transformation of the Chinese socio-economic model on the international relations that China maintains with the Western countries and its Asian neighbours. The research activities of the project will require a thorough examination of both the Chinese institutional framework and the links between the legal, social, economic and political realms. Consequently, the inter-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary approach adopted at the SIS will prove invaluable in ensuring that the project provides an original contribution to the current policy debate and to the literature.

Research Team

Luigi Bonatti, Andrea Fracasso, Paolo Rosa

Post-doc Fellow

Peng Bin (until March 2016; currently at the College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China)

Recent publications relevant to the project

  • Bin, P, Chen, X, Fracasso, A, Tomasi, C. (2020) Firm employment growth in China: The role of marketization and regional economic factors. Growth and Change. 51: 402– 439.
  • Paolo Rosa, (2018) Neoclassical Realism and the Underdevelopment of China's Nuclear Doctrine, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan (link)
  • Bin P, Chen X., Fracasso A, and C Tomasi, (2018), "Resource allocation and productivity across provinces in China" International Review of Economics and Finance , 57, 103-113. 10.1016/j.iref.2018.02.015
  • Paolo Rosa and Paolo Foradori,  (2017) "Politics does not Stop at the ‘Nucler Edge’. Neoclassical Realism and the Making of China’s Military Doctrine”, Italian Political Science Review47(3): 359-384
  • Bin P. and Fracasso A., (2017) "Regional consumption inequality in China: an Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition at the prefectural level", Growth and Change, 48(3), 459-486.
  • Bonatti L, Fracasso A., (2016), "“Modeling the Transition Towards the Renminbi’s Full Convertibility: Implications for China’s Growth”, Bulletin of Economic Research, 68:S1, 145-170, 2016.
  • Bin P.,(2016) "Dynamic Development of Regional Disparity in Mainland China: An Experimental Study Based on a Multidimensional Index", Sustainability, 8(12), 1287.
  • Bin P. and Vassallo M., "A Latent Growth Modeling: Dynamic Change of Agricultural Productivity on a Prefectural Level and New Agricultural-Oriented Policy in China", Economies 4(3), 13.
  • Fracasso A. (2015) “Economic Rebalancing and Growth: the Japanese experience and China’s prospects" DEM Discussion Paper 2015/07, Università degli Studi di Trento.
  • Bin P, 2015 "Regional Disparity and Dynamic Development of China: a Multidimensional Index", SIS Working Paper 01,-2015Università degli Studi di Trento
  • Rosa P. (a cura di), 2014, "Gli Artigli del drago. Il pensiero militare cinese tra confucianesimo e realpolitik", Sulla via del Catai, n. 10.
  • Bonatti L., Fracasso A., 2014, “Modeling the Transition Towards Renminbi's Full Convertibility: Implications for China's Growth” SIS Working Paper 03-2014, Università degli Studi di Trento
  • Rosa P., 2014, "Who Won? Power and Factional Balance in China after the 18th Congress of the CCP", Journal of Political Power, 7(3).
  • Rosa P., 2014, "China and Nuclear Weapons. Between Modernization and Non-proliferation", in P. Foradori (ed), Still the Century of Overkill? Strengthening the Control of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Baden-Baden, Nomos (forthcoming).
  • Bonatti L, Fracasso A., 2013, "Hoarding of international reserves in China: mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy" Journal of International Money and Finance, 32(C), 1044-1078, doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.08.007
  • Bonatti L., Fracasso A., 2013, "Regime Switches in the Sino-American Co-Dependency: Growth and Structural Change in China", Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 25(June), 1-32, doi:10.1016/ j.strueco.2013.01.004.
  • Rosa P., 2012, "  'Elite Politics' e politica estera in Cina. Cambio di leadership e orientamenti internazionali in vista del XVIII congresso del PCC", Quaderni di Scienza Politica, n. 2.

Other related activities

  • 29 Maggio 2019. Workshop CINA GLOBALE . La 'Belt and Road Initiative’e l’attivismo internazionale cinese nel XXI secolo. Centro Martino Martini e Scuola di Studi Internazionali. Trento. A cura di Sofia Graziani e Andrea Fracasso
  • 15 February 2017. Fracasso A. “Resource allocation across provinces in China”, Lunch seminar, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, Japan, 
  • 6-7 September 2016: Workshop "Manufacturing Firms in China: Resource Allocation, Productivity and Performance", Scuola di Studi Internazionali & Dipartimento di Economia e Management, Università di Trento. Scientific Coordinators: Andrea Fracasso, Chiara Tomasi. Article on the event: Andrea Fracasso, Chiara Tomasi: Made In China. Le imprese nella trasformazione del modello economico cinese. UnitrentoMag 9 September 2016
  • Bin P.: Missions aimed at the data collection (Chinese Industrial Enterprises Database), Sichuan University.
  • Bin P., 10th International Conference on the Chinese Economy, University of Auvergne, Clermont-Ferrand, France, 22-23 October, 2015.
  • 28 May 2014: Conference “Da Confucio a Mao. Continuità e Cambiamento nel Pensiero Militare cinese”, Scuola di Studi Internazionali e Centro Studi Martino Martini, Università di Trento. Scientific coordinator: Paolo Rosa.
  • 2-30 April 2014: Andrea Fracasso was Visiting Research Fellow at the Center for Asian and Pacific Studies, Seikei University, Tokyo (Japan). Research title: “Economic Rebalancing: the Japanese experience and China’s prospects”.